Horowhenua and Wellington Region
Population Forecasts
Sense Partners have worked with the Wellington Regional Leadership Council Secretariat, Horowhenua District Council, and other councils in the greater Wellington region, to develop population forecasts in the region up until 2054.
The forecasts include details on the age structures, household types and drivers of population change such as migration, births and deaths each year.
The forecasts are intended as an input to inform district plans and spatial planning. We provide a range of possible outcomes that capture uncertainty about the future.
Population
Between 2021 and 2054, the population is forecasted to rise ny about 200,000 across the region.
The Carteron and South Wairarapa Districts population may increase by about 50%, and in Wellington City the population may grow by around 56,000 people.
Households
The average household size is forecasted to decrease slightly, while the overall number of households is set grow, particularly for the Alone and Couple categories
Ages
The 20-30 age band is forecasted to dip between in the near-term, while other ages bands are set to steadily increase, with greater certainty in the over 65 age bands.
Migration
After the dip in international migration due to COVID-19 over the next few years, net migration is forecasted to be positive but declining.
Similarly, the net affect of both domestic migration and from births and deaths are set to steadily decline.