Population forecast 2024 to 2056
The central range of our forecast for the Horowhenua-Wellington region is an increase in population of between 10% (65,000 people) and 50% (270,000 people), with a mid point increase to 760,000 (+30%) from 580,000 people currently. Wellington City is expected to have the lowest rate of growth, due to the long shadow of recent economic and demographic shocks (mainly COVID and border closures) that have caused significant net migration losses in recent years and we expect that to continue for a few years more. Horowhenua is expected to have the fastest rate of growth, in a continuation of trends of the past decade.
The following charts show the total population per year, and percentage growth per year.
Total population for the Horowhenua-Wellington region.
The population is set to steadily rise over the next 30 years, with the rate of increase fluctuating with economic cycles and migration. There is a high degree of uncertainty about exactly how fast the population will grow. By our projections, the population will be between 570,000 and 944,000 people in 2055.
Our projections to 2056 are based on a running hundreds of simulations that calculate forcasts for population, employment, migration and other factors. As we move further into the future, there is more uncertainty and variability around what the actual population may be.
The outcomes of our simulations give us range of possible populations into the future. These ranges are divided into percentiles: 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th. These percentiles are shown on the graphs.
For example, a value for the 25th percentile means that we found for 25 percent of our simulations, the projected population is below this value, and 75 percent of simulations are above that value.
Percentage change per year for the Horowhenua-Wellington region
The population is expected to grow at the same rate in the next 30 years as it did in the past 30 years (0.8%, on average). The middle of the range of our projected growth rates, spans 0.3% per year and up to 1.2% per year (this is the range between the 25th and 75th percentiles of our projections).
Population projections per area
The following charts show the total population as at each year and the percentage change per year, for each Territorial Authority in the Horowhenua-Wellington region.
The Territorial Authorities align with the boundaries of the district councils or cities.
Summary data
The table below provides the values for the 50th percentile, which is the median projection. These population numbers are very unlikely to actually happen. The above charts, focussing on ranges of possible outcomes, provide a better guide to potential changes in the size of the population.