Population forecast 2021 to 2054
The Horowhenua-Wellington region population is forecasted to rise to 724,906 from 543,607 people. The Carterton and Masterton Districts population may increase by just over 50%. In Wellington City the population may grow to 271,288 people - up 26% on the current population.
The following charts show the total population per year, and percentage growth per year.
Total population for the Horowhenua-Wellington region.
The population is set to steadily rise over the next 30 years, with the rate of increase slowly decreasing. By 2054, the population could be between 516,000 and 1,030,000 people.
Our projections to 2054 are based on a running hundreds simulations that calculate forcasts for population, employment, migration and other factors. As we move further into the future, there is more uncertainty and variability around what the actual population may be.
The outcomes of our simulations give us range of possible populations into the future. These ranges are divided into percentiles: 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th. These percentiles are shown on the graphs.
For example, a value for the 25th percentile means that we found for 25 percent of our simulations, the projected population is below this value, and 75 percent of simulations are above that value.
Percentage change per year for the Horowhenua-Wellington region
While the overall population is generally forecasted to grow, the rate at which the population grows is forecasted to slow from approximately +0.9% per year to around +0.67% in 2054. For some of our projections the population may start to decrease.
Population projections per area
The following charts show the total population as at each year and the percentage change per year, for each Territorial Authority in the Horowhenua-Wellington region.
The Territorial Authorities align with the boundaries of the district councils or cities.
Summary data
The table below provides the values for the 50th percentile, which is the median projection.